A Conflict Ignited
In mid‑June 2025, the decades-long Israel–Iran confrontation turned overt as Operation Rising Lion began. Israel launched a series of airstrikes and covert Mossad operations targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites—mostly around Tehran, Natanz, and other strategic locations. These strikes eliminated key military figures and crippled missile infrastructure
Iran’s Massive Missile Retaliation
Within hours, Iran fired over 150 ballistic missiles and 100+ drones at Israel, marking the largest direct assault in years. Cities including Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Beersheba came under fire, with around 24 civilian deaths reported, despite Israel claiming to have intercepted ~80–90% of incoming threats
Military Tactics & Tech Innovation
- Mossad’s role: Israel smuggled drones deep into Iran, sabotaging surface-to-surface missile launchers before airstrikes began
- Israel’s strike focus: Airstrikes hit Iran’s SSM facilities, nuclear sites, and missile depots. Experts warn that eliminating those deep underground, like at Fordow, may require a risky commando raid
- Iran’s defense: Despite heavy targeting, Iran remains militarily intact—its regime survives, but the conflict has triggered mass displacement from Tehran
Regional & Global Fallout
- Economic hits: Oil prices spiked on fears of oil infrastructure disruption, though stabilized slightly after market reactions .
- Diplomatic moves: Iran’s foreign minister toured regional capitals—Tehran is signaling dual tracks of escalation and diplomacy
- Legal and strategic questions: Experts are debating the legality and long-term effectiveness of Israel’s deep strikes
How It Could Evolve
- Protracted hybrid war: This conflict could mirror Iraq in 2003—a long attritional strife involving cyber and guerilla warfare ft.com.
- Risk of WMD use: Analysts warn Iran might activate or hasten nuclear programs—or Israel could pressure the U.S. for deeper support .
- Global economic disruptions: Fuel-exporting nations are on alert; supply chain pressure could follow if escalation continues
Final Take
This war has shattered the old “shadow conflict” dynamic. We’re now in a full-scale confrontation with direct hits, retaliatory strikes, and social upheaval. With the potential for prolonged warfare and global consequences—economically and diplomatically—the world is watching closely. The coming days will determine whether both sides enter a steep escalation or pivot to serious negotiation.
